Weekly Market Report
Prices Are Cooling — But Not Everywhere
Edition #1 · 24 July 2026
This Week in Brief
The URA Q2 2026 flash estimate confirmed what many observers suspected: the market is decelerating. The overall private residential price index rose only 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, down from 0.9% in Q1. But the headline number masks real divergence between segments — and that’s where the actionable insight lives.
URA Q2 2026 Flash Estimate — Key Numbers
Overall PPI: +0.5% QoQ (vs +0.9% in Q1)
Non-landed prices: −0.1% (vs +1.3% in Q1) — first decline since early 2024
CCR: +2.0% (vs +0.6%) — luxury segment rebounding
RCR: −1.4% (vs +0.8%) — notable reversal
OCR: −0.2% (vs +2.2%) — the HDB-upgrader sweet spot softening
Landed: +2.6% (vs −0.4%) — sharp supply-driven rebound
Transaction volume: 5,420 units (Q2), roughly flat vs 5,413 (Q1)
01
What This Actually Means
The RCR reversal (−1.4%) is the number that matters most to the largest group of buyers. The Rest of Central Region has been the workhorse of new launch demand — projects like The Continuum, Grand Dunman, and Tembusu Grand drove much of the volume in 2023–2024. Prices in that corridor may have found their near-term ceiling, especially for larger units where absolute quantum is harder to justify.
CCR’s 2% rebound is interesting but narrow — driven by a handful of high-end transactions at projects like Skywaters Residences and Newport Residences. It doesn’t signal broad luxury demand; it signals that the right product at the right pricing still moves.
OCR softening (−0.2%) after a strong Q1 run (+2.2%) suggests the wave of upgraders who entered in early 2026 may be taking a breather. This is not alarming — it’s normal seasonality layered over a deliberate policy cooling effect from the GLS supply injection.
02
What’s Coming: GLS 2H 2026
URA announced 4,745 private residential units on the 2H 2026 Confirmed List, bringing the full-year total to 9,320 units — over 50% higher than the 10-year annual average. Combined with expected completions of ~61,000 units over the next few years, this is the largest supply pipeline since 2013.
For buyers, this is a structural shift. The era of “buy anything, prices always go up” is over. The era of “buy selectively, compare everything, and negotiate” is here. That makes project analysis more valuable — not less.
03
This Week’s Pipeline: Hougang Central
The biggest story nobody has fully written yet: the CapitaLand–UOL consortium’s $1.5 billion Hougang Central integrated development. Awarded on 14 January 2026 at $1,179 psf per plot ratio, this ~835-unit project sits directly above Hougang MRT (NEL) and the upcoming Cross Island Line (CRL) interchange.
At $1,179 psf land cost, my estimated breakeven is approximately $1,900–$2,000 psf, suggesting a launch price range of $2,400–$2,700 psf — comparable to recent OCR new launches but with the advantage of a true integrated development (MRT + mall + residential). I’m working on a full analysis page now. Read the preview →
04
In Case You Missed It
- Lucerne Grand — CDL’s 575-unit Lakeside MRT project previewing mid-September 2026. Full analysis page now live.
- Cooling Measures guide refreshed July 2026 — reflects latest ABSD and TDSR framework.
- OCR vs CCR — new analysis on where value sits today as the pricing gap narrows.
My take: A cooling market isn’t a bad market — it’s a selective one. The supply pipeline is the healthiest it’s been in years, and buyers who do their homework have genuine leverage. The projects that succeed in this environment will be those with real locational advantages and sensible pricing — not hype. I’ll be covering each major launch with the same framework: what’s good, what’s not, and who it suits.
— Emmeline Koh · Property Strategist · CEA Reg R045542G · PropNex Realty
This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Prices and availability may change. All estimates are my own and should be independently verified.
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